Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International

Urbanisation along major transport corridors can redistribute land-use pressure beyond existing built-up cores but overlapping buffer summaries may obscure the location of prospective conversion. This study evaluates a conditional 2050 land-use and land-cover (LULC) scenario for the Mumbai–Agra National Highway corridor in Nashik District, India, using historical evidence for 1991–2021. The documented classification workflow combined Object-Based Image Analysis and Random Forest classification of four Landsat datasets; reported overall accuracies ranged from 91.8% to 94.1%. The present analysis audits the scenario tabulations and derives non-overlapping distance rings from cumulative 2 km, 5 km and 10 km buffers. Percentages recalculated from the reported class areas and fixed buffer extents indicate that built-up share increases from 39.60% to 62.27%, 31.02% to 55.57% and 20.27% to 51.63%, respectively. In the 5–10 km ring, built-up share increases from 9.52% to 47.70%, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.72%; this ring accounts for 60.87% of the projected built-up increment within 10 km. Historical landscape indices report increasing patch subdivision and dominance, but unspecified calculation levels and inconsistent metric metadata prevent firm class-specific ecological conclusions. The 2050 class-area totals differ from the stated buffer extents by +0.04 km², −0.40 km² and +1.00 km². Transition matrices, suitability weights, cellular settings, hindcast validation and sensitivity results are unavailable, so the scenario is not independently reproduced or validated. The ring comparison identifies where the reported scenario concentrates potential conversion pressure and supports conditional, distance-specific planning priorities.