Is There Any Need for a Dike to Save Melbourne from the Rising Seas?
A. Parker *
School of Engineering and Physical Science, James Cook University, Townsville 4811 QLD, Australia
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The Australian government is still basing policy on the concept that sea level will rise by 1.1 meters along the Australian coastline by 2100. The Department of the Environment has proposed a 10 billion dollar dike to save Melbourne from the hypothetical rising sea. In reality the tide gauges of Victoria are recording average relative rates of rise of less than 1 mm/year, in perfect agreement with the National average. At this rate sea level will rise by only 8.5 cm by 2100 but even this estimate may be too high. The worldwide average sea level rise, based on only tide gauges of sufficient quality and length, is only about 0.25 mm/year, with zero acceleration over the last few decades. Such a rise can be dealt with by local adaption, as in the last 100 years, and there is no need for any engineering structures, let alone the proposed 10’billion dollar scheme with its accompanying environmental and social problems.
Keywords: Sea level rise, climate change adaptation, Melbourne, Australia