A Copula-based Approach for Assessing Flood Protection Overtopping Associated with a Seasonal Flood Forecast in Niamey, West Africa
Abdouramane Gado Djibo *
Wetlands International Mali Office, P.O.Box 5017, Hamdallaye ACI 2000 Bamako, Mali
Ousmane Seidou
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada and Institute for Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University, Hamilton, ONL8P 0A1, Canada
Hadiza Moussa Saley
Centre Africain d’Études Supérieures en Gestion (CESAG), Dakar BP 3802, Sénégal
Nathalie Philippon
Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, UMR6282 Biogéosciences CNRS, Université de Bourgogne, Dijon 21000, France
Ketvara Sittichok
Department of Irrigation Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kasetsart University, Kamphaengsaen District, Nakhon Pathom, 73140, Thailand
Harouna Karambiri
International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2iE), 01 BP 594 Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Jean Emmanuel Paturel
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 5569 Hydro Sciences Montpellier CC 57, Université de Montpellier - 163, Rue Auguste Broussonnet 34090 Montpellier, France
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Flood is one of the most important natural disasters that cause huge loss of life and properties every year around the world. Moreover, the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies pointed out that floods were by far the greatest cause of homelessness. In West Africa, many countries are damaged from flooding almost every season. Thus, this study aimed to set a seasonal flood forecast model and carried out an evaluation of the level of risk associated with each seasonal forecast. HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System) was used to develop a hydro-dynamical model of Niger river on a 160km reach (80km upstream to 80kmdownstream of Niamey), then a simple risk measure was used to calculate the probability of overtopping the flood protection dykes in Niamey. Results show that the hydro-dynamical model reproduced well the rating curve over the period 2009-2014. A subsequent copula analysis demonstrated a dependency between flow on the Niger river and flow on the Sirba River, the main tributary contributing to the seasonal flood at Niamey. The Gumbel copula was found to be the best among the tested 5 copulas to represent the dependency between peak flow on the main channel of the Niger River and concomitant flow on the Sirba river. It is found that for the six dykes the probabilities of being overtopped by the flood range from very high (100%) to relatively low (16.67 %) over the 34 years of simulation.
Keywords: Seasonal flood forecast, HEC-RAS model, dykes, copula, Niamey